Wednesday, February 28, 2007

The Good, The Bad, and the Bull Run

It was only yesterday that I posted on how we have had an incredible Bull Run over the last 4 months, and it was only a matter of time until there was a slip up along the way.

Quite often, it only takes one small trigger for the domino effect that is falling share markets across the world. Today we saw after whispers that the Chinese Government, in an attempt to slow down growth, will begin taxing capital gains on shares bought and sold on the Chinese share market. This triggered the largest sell off on the Chinese market in 10 years, followed by the largest in the US and Australian markets since September 11.

So, investors that have panicked to sell off their investments and place them in super (of which possibly close to 50% is invested in Australian equities), today saw thousands wiped off the values of their super. I am now kicking myself that I didn't practice what I preach and Short Sell the S&P ASX 200 Index yesterday.

What is Ironic is that those cautious investors who have been sitting on the fence, waiting for the legislation to be passed through Parliament finally got the news they have been waiting for this morning. The super changes that have been proposed have been signed off by the Senate and are now Law. Good news coming to those who wait, or just a fortunate coincidence of events?

Is the Bull Run finally over? Most think not. The market is likely simply correct to more sustainable levels, consolidate for a while, and run again when we've all forgotten about the issues of today. Such is the nature of the beast.

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